WASHINGTON, D.C. — Retail sales declined in September following two strong months of back-to-school spending, but year-over-year growth remains solid as retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, and released Thursday by the National Retail Federation.
“Retail sales dipped in September as consumers hit the pause button after two solid months of back-to-school spending,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Amid continued economic uncertainty, consumers opted to preserve spending power in preparation for the important holiday season. While month-over-month spending data has fluctuated as consumers have reacted to changing circumstances, year-over-year gains show robust growth and signal momentum as we head into the holidays.”
According to the Retail Monitor, total retail sales — excluding automobiles and gasoline — were down 0.66% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.42% unadjusted year over year in September. Core retail sales, which exclude restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations, fell 0.49% month over month but rose 5.72% year over year.
Total sales for the first nine months of 2025 were up 5.12% year over year, while core sales increased 5.32%, the report said.
Unlike the U.S. Census Bureau’s survey-based estimates, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card data collected by Affinity Solutions and does not require monthly or annual revisions.
Sales increased year over year in all but one retail category, led by digital products (up 21.35%), sporting goods stores (up 8.81%), and clothing and accessories stores (up 7.35%). However, monthly sales declined in five of nine categories, including furniture and home furnishings (down 1.87%) and grocery and beverage stores (down 0.76%).
The National Retail Federation said the September slowdown indicates consumers are being cautious amid economic uncertainty but remain poised to spend during the upcoming holiday season.
