AAA forecasts record 122.4 million holiday travelers; air travel to surpass 8 million for first time

A record 122.4 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home during the year-end holiday period between Dec. 20 and Jan. 1, a 2.2% increase from last year, AAA said Wednesday.

“Year-end travel is a mix of family road trips, friend getaways, and tropical vacations,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel. “Holiday celebrations look different for everyone, but a common thread is the desire to travel, whether it’s returning to your hometown or exploring new destinations.”

Road Travel: 109.5 Million Drivers

AAA projects 109.5 million people will travel by car, up 2% from last year. About 89% of all holiday travelers are expected to drive, aided in part by lower gas prices. The national average fell below $3 a gallon this month for the first time in four years and may continue declining.

With roads expected to be crowded, AAA urged safety during what it called one of the most dangerous times of year for impaired driving. December is National Impaired Driving Prevention Month, and AAA and Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) are encouraging motorists to plan safe rides home.

Last year, AAA responded to more than 860,000 roadside assistance calls during the holiday period, including for dead batteries, flat tires and vehicle lockouts. The organization reminded drivers to slow down and move over when passing stopped vehicles on the roadside.

Car rental demand remains high. Hertz projects Saturday, Dec. 20, as the busiest pick-up day. The top rental markets are Orlando, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Miami and Phoenix, and small SUVs are the most popular rental class. Domestic rental prices are up 1% from last year.

Air Travel: More Than 8 Million Flyers

AAA expects a record 8.03 million Americans to fly this holiday season, a 2.3% increase from 2024 and the first time holiday air travel is projected to exceed 8 million passengers.

Roundtrip domestic airfare is 7% more expensive, averaging nearly $900 per ticket. Flights in the days before Christmas and on New Year’s Day are among the costliest.

Other Transportation Modes Rising

An estimated 4.9 million people will travel by bus, train or cruise — a 9% increase over last year. This category has grown 25% since 2019 due to strong post-pandemic demand for cruising.

Top Holiday Destinations

Warm-weather destinations dominate AAA’s domestic bookings. International travelers continue to favor the Caribbean and Mexico.

Top U.S. destinations: Orlando; Fort Lauderdale; Miami; Anaheim/Los Angeles; Honolulu; Tampa; New York City; Maui; Dallas–Fort Worth; Las Vegas.
Top international destinations: Cancun; Punta Cana; Cozumel; San José, Costa Rica; Puerto Vallarta; San Juan; Nassau; Rome; Aruba; Sydney.

Traffic Forecasts for Major Metros

Transportation analytics firm INRIX expects Christmas week to bring heavier road congestion than New Year’s week, with the busiest travel days falling on the weekend before Christmas and on Friday, Dec. 26.

AAA is highlighting traffic forecasts for major metro areas, including New York and Philadelphia:

• New York: Worst congestion expected Monday, Dec. 22, at 4:15 p.m. for drivers heading to the Hamptons via the Long Island Expressway, with travel times nearly doubling.

• Philadelphia: Worst congestion expected Friday, Dec. 26, at 2:45 p.m. for the trip to Baltimore via I-95 South, with travel time projected to increase by 54%.

AAA recommends traveling early in the morning or later in the evening to avoid the heaviest traffic.