More than half of holiday shoppers say economy will affect spending plans, NRF survey finds
WASHINGTON, D.C. — More than half of holiday shoppers say the state of the economy will influence their spending this year, with many planning to seek out sales, compare prices and use coupons to make their holiday purchases more affordable, according to a new survey from the National Retail Federation.
The NRF’s annual holiday consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, found that 56% of shoppers expect economic conditions to affect their spending plans for the 2026 holiday season. Among those consumers, 43% plan to shop sales more frequently, 31% expect to compare prices online more often and 29% intend to use coupons more regularly.
“With affordability top of mind, holiday shoppers are taking a thoughtful approach to spending, balancing value with preserving traditions that make the holiday season special,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Allison Zeller said. “Retailers understand consumer budget priorities and are responding with compelling products, promotions and shopping experiences that make it easier to find value while still capturing the holiday excitement.”
Despite concerns about affordability, 91% of U.S. adults plan to celebrate winter holidays, including Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa, a figure consistent with recent years.
The survey found that 43% of holiday shoppers plan to begin browsing and purchasing gifts before November, compared with 42% last year. Among those starting early, half said they want to spread out their holiday shopping expenses, while 37% cited attractive prices and promotions as a reason to begin shopping sooner.
For consumers waiting until November or December to begin shopping, affordability remains a major factor. According to the survey, 46% of those shoppers said they are holding off because they expect to find the best prices and promotions later in the season.
Although many consumers begin their holiday shopping early, nearly two-thirds still expect to make most of their purchases during Thanksgiving weekend. The survey found that 64% of consumers are likely to wait until that period to complete the bulk of their shopping, compared with 63% last year.
“From getting an early start to waiting for major deals and promotions, consumers are choosing when to shop based on what works best for them,” Prosper Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “Even with a significant portion of shoppers beginning before November, many still plan to take advantage of deals and promotions during Thanksgiving weekend to make progress on their holiday shopping.”
Online shopping remains the most popular destination for holiday purchases, with 53% of consumers planning to shop online. Grocery stores and discount stores were each selected by 43% of respondents, while 42% said they plan to shop at department stores.
Gift cards continue to lead holiday wish lists, with 47% of consumers saying they would like to receive them this year. Clothing ranked second at 44%, followed by books and other media at 25% and personal care or beauty products at 24%.
The survey findings come as the NRF forecasts another year of holiday retail sales growth. The organization recently projected that spending during November and December will increase 4.2% compared with 2025, reaching approximately $1.013 trillion nationwide.
The holiday spending forecast suggests that overall retail sales are expected to continue growing even as individual consumers adjust their shopping habits to manage costs.
The survey was conducted Oct. 1-7 among 8,094 adult consumers and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.
Additional information about the survey and holiday shopping trends is available on the National Retail Federation’s website.
