Turkey prices fall as 2025 Thanksgiving dinner costs dip despite higher food inflation, report finds
A new analysis from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute shows that the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner is expected to drop this year, even as overall grocery prices continue to rise. According to the report, released Thursday, a full holiday meal for 10 people can be prepared for as little as $80 in 2025, down about 2% to 3% from last year.
The findings come despite the Consumer Price Index’s “food at home” category increasing 2.7% over the past year. Researchers attributed the discrepancy to sharply lower prices for key Thanksgiving staples — most notably turkey — and increased competition between national brands and private-label store products.
“Even though the cost of food at home is up, the cost of our Thanksgiving menu has fallen,” said Dr. Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist for Wells Fargo. “It is fascinating to explore this difference and why it is happening.”
The report was presented by Swanson, Robin Wenzel, head of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, and Courtney Schmidt, the institute’s sector manager.
Turkey tops the savings
Turkey prices for national-name brands are down an estimated 3.7% from last year, according to Circana data cited in the report. Researchers said turkey producers and retailers placed orders months in advance and appear to have hit the right supply levels in 2025, helping keep costs low for shoppers.
“America’s turkey producers and retailers coordinate all year to bring many birds to the supermarket for the rush of buying,” Swanson said.
Turkey remains the biggest cost saver, but the report notes that roast chicken and spiral-cut ham also provide relatively affordable protein alternatives.
Frozen vegetables and classic sides see major price drops
National-brand frozen vegetables saw one of the largest price declines — a 15% year-over-year drop. Private-label frozen vegetables, meanwhile, increased slightly at 0.8%.
Private-label dinner rolls posted the most significant overall decrease, falling 22% from last year. Stuffing mix, gravy packets and fresh cranberries all dropped between 3% and 4%, while national-brand pumpkin pies are down 3%.
“These key sides are being pressured by more supply and private label price competition,” the report notes.
Convenience gains ground
Prepared mashed potatoes — a rapidly growing grocery category — fell 1.5% year over year. While preparing potatoes from scratch is still cheaper, analysts say many Americans find the convenience worth the trade-off.
A few items creep upward
Prepackaged salad mix increased 0.3%, and whipping cream rose about 3%, in line with other dairy products.
Drink prices split
Beverages showed mixed trends:
- Beer prices are up 3%.
- Wine prices dipped slightly by 0.1%.
- Soda prices split, with 12-ounce cans falling 3% but 2-liter bottles jumping 7%. Even with the increase, the larger bottles remain the better value.
Holiday shoppers encouraged to strategize
Wenzel said the analysis highlights consumers’ ability to cut costs by comparing brand options.
“With thoughtful choices and a bit of planning, a full holiday meal for ten can be served for just $80,” she said.
The report concluded that private-label options offer meaningful savings on many staples, while national brands currently provide better pricing on cranberries, pumpkin pie and certain frozen vegetables.
Despite ongoing inflation in some food categories — particularly beef and dairy — researchers emphasize that a traditional Thanksgiving menu remains one of the few places where Americans can still find holiday-season relief.
