FDU poll finds New Jersey likely voters favor Democrats 55% to 32% in congressional races

NEW JERSEY— Democratic congressional candidates have a 23-point advantage over Republicans among likely New Jersey voters surveyed ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released Tuesday, Oct. 27.

The FDU Poll found that 55% of likely voters surveyed said they would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 32% who favored the Republican candidate. The survey also found that affordability and gas prices were among the most important issues influencing respondents’ voting preferences.

“There just isn’t any good news to be found for Republican candidates this cycle,” said Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, and the Executive Director of the FDU Poll. “There are some issues that are better for Republicans than others, but voters just don’t care about them as much, and the issues that are driving voters are helping Democrats.”

The poll found that Democratic candidates had particularly strong support among younger and Hispanic respondents, two groups in which Republicans had made gains during the 2024 presidential election.

Among likely voters younger than 30, 63% said they planned to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, compared with 20% who favored a Republican. Among Hispanic likely voters surveyed, Democratic candidates held a 58% to 29% advantage.

The survey also found some crossover support between the parties. Eight percent of Republican likely voters said they intended to support a Democratic congressional candidate, while 5% of Democratic likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican.

“President Trump has made himself the face of the Republican Party, and not many Republicans have dared to push back,” said Cassino. “So it makes sense that as Trump becomes less popular, Republican candidates are going to go down with him.”

Among respondents who said they were very likely to vote or had already cast their ballots, Democratic candidates held a larger advantage, with 59% support compared with 33% for Republicans.

The findings reflect the preferences of voters included in the survey and do not represent actual election results or predict the outcome of individual congressional races.

Poll finds decline in respondents identifying as MAGA

The FDU Poll also examined how New Jersey voters describe their political views, finding a substantial decline in the percentage of respondents identifying with the Make America Great Again movement.

According to the university, 27% of New Jersey voters surveyed in January 2024 identified as MAGA. That figure declined to 16% in March 2026 and fell further to 10% in the latest survey.

The university said approximately one-third of Republican respondents now identify as MAGA, compared with more than two-thirds in January 2024.

“We’d expect there to be more MAGA voters during the run-up to a Presidential election in 2024,” said Cassino. “But a drop from 16 percent to 10 percent in just 6 months is remarkable, and shows how toxic the MAGA brand has become, even among Republicans.”

Other ideological labels showed smaller changes over the same period. The percentage of respondents identifying as moderate declined from 40% in January 2024 to 38% in the latest survey, while those identifying as conservative dropped from 28% to 24%. The share identifying as liberal decreased from 29% to 23%.

Affordability and gas prices among top concerns

Affordability emerged as the most widely cited issue in the survey, with 90% of respondents saying it was important to their vote. That included 93% of Democrats and 88% of Republicans.

Gas prices were also a major concern, with 87% of respondents identifying them as important, including 92% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans.

The poll found greater partisan differences on other issues. Among Democrats surveyed, 87% said potential checks on President Donald Trump’s power were important to their vote, compared with 41% of Republicans. Meanwhile, 38% of respondents said the status of transgender people was important to their voting decisions.

Researchers also conducted an experiment within the survey to examine whether asking respondents to consider certain issues affected their reported candidate preferences and likelihood of voting.

Before answering questions about their voting intentions, participants were randomly asked about the importance of three issues selected from a list of six: affordability, gas prices, potential checks on Trump’s power, immigration policy, the war in Iran and the status of transgender people.

The results showed differences in candidate preferences depending on which issues respondents were asked to consider.

Among respondents asked about affordability, Democratic candidates held a 27-point advantage, 58% to 31%. The Democratic advantage was 26 points among those asked about gas prices and 25 points among those asked about potential checks on Trump’s power.

The margin was narrower among respondents asked about immigration, with Democrats leading 51% to 35%, a 16-point advantage. Democratic candidates held a 19-point lead among those asked about transgender issues and a 22-point lead among those asked about the war in Iran.

“There are some issue areas that favor Republicans; the problem is that they’re not the ones voters think are important,” said Cassino. “Republicans might do better when voters are thinking about trans issues, but voters are thinking about affordability and gas prices.”

The researchers also found that the issues presented to respondents affected how likely they said they were to vote.

Among Republican respondents asked about immigration policy immediately before questions about turnout, 86% said they were very likely to vote or had already voted. That figure was 73% among Republicans asked about affordability immediately beforehand.

“Not only does thinking about affordability make voters more likely to support Democrats in the midterms, it makes people more likely to vote in the first place,” said Cassino. “Republicans desperately need to reframe the race around their issues if they want to get competitive, but it may just be too late.”

Poll methodology

The survey was conducted Oct. 16-22, 2026, by Braun Research of Princeton, using a voter list of registered New Jersey voters. Respondents were contacted through live telephone interviews on landlines and cellphones, as well as text messages linking to online surveys. All interviews were conducted in English.

The results were weighted to reflect the state’s likely voter population based on the 2024 and 2025 elections, accounting for sex, age, education, region and race and ethnicity. The university said no weighting was applied based on political party affiliation, ideology or reported past votes.

According to the methodology, the poll’s unadjusted margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. When accounting for the effects of weighting, the margin of error increased to approximately 5.1 percentage points.

The methodology contains inconsistent sample-size figures, listing 805 registered voters in one section and 807 in another, while its breakdown of survey methods totals 816 responses.

The university also noted that the margin of error does not account for other potential sources of variation, including nonresponse, question wording and survey context.

The poll provides a snapshot of surveyed voters’ preferences ahead of the November midterm elections, rather than a definitive measure of how New Jersey voters will cast their ballots.