WASHINGTON, D.C. — Retail sales strengthened in October, posting both monthly and year-over-year gains as consumers prepared for the holiday shopping season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, and released Monday by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“Retail sales grew in October as consumers geared up for the holiday season,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Recent economic data has been mixed, yet consumer spending remains solid — supported by wage growth outpacing inflation, historically low unemployment, and wealth effects from strong stock market valuations. These factors point to continued momentum heading into the holidays as consumers focus on family, friends and finding value to make their budgets go further.”
According to the report, total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, increased 0.6% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% year over year on an unadjusted basis in October. That follows a 0.66% decrease month over month and a 5.42% annual increase in September.
Core retail sales—which exclude restaurants, auto dealers, and gas stations—also rose 0.6% month over month and 4.89% year over year in October. Over the first 10 months of 2025, total sales were up 5.11%, while core sales increased 5.28% compared with the same period in 2024.
The October report comes as the NRF forecasts 2025 holiday sales to grow between 3.7% and 4.2% from last year, surpassing $1 trillion in total spending.
Unlike survey-based data collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor draws from actual, anonymized credit and debit card transactions compiled by Affinity Solutions, providing timely insights without the need for monthly or annual revisions.
Sales gains were reported in nearly every major category, with the strongest increases seen in digital products, clothing, and sporting goods.
Key sector results include:
- Digital products (such as e-books and games) rose 2.02% month over month and 22.39% year over year.
- Clothing and accessories stores were up 1.42% month over month and 7.89% year over year.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores rose 0.09% month over month and 7.19% year over year.
- General merchandise stores climbed 0.58% month over month and 6.99% year over year.
- Electronics and appliance stores were up 0.13% month over month and 6.58% year over year.
- Grocery and beverage stores increased 0.59% month over month and 4.08% year over year.
- Health and personal care stores rose 0.58% month over month and 1.9% year over year.
Only two categories saw declines: furniture and home furnishings stores, down 0.08% month over month and 1.7% year over year, and building and garden supply stores, down 0.81% month over month and 8.52% year over year.
The NRF said the overall results signal strong consumer engagement and economic resilience as the nation enters its busiest shopping period of the year.
