Odds of a white Christmas; which areas have the best and worst chance of a snowy holiday

Bitterly cold air has spread across much of the northern and eastern United States this week, but AccuWeather expert meteorologists say a pattern change on the horizon could lead to milder air and less snow on the ground before the holidays.

“It’s been a cold start to December for much of the eastern half of the nation. Don’t expect the cold to stick around too much longer. We expect a pattern shift in mid-December with a change from a cold Polar air mass to a milder Pacific air mass, especially for the central and eastern United States,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. “This can lead to snow melt for many areas that received snow at the start of the winter season, not leaving too much snow around just before Christmas.”

AccuWeather will issue the 2024 white Christmas forecast in mid-December.

In the meantime, AccuWeather expert meteorologists have reviewed historical data to determine which major U.S. cities have the highest odds of experiencing a white Christmas.

Historical data from 1991-2020 shows that none of the 25 most-populated cities in the United States have much more than a one-in-three chance of getting an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.

#1 – Denver, Colorado

Records show that Denver, Colorado, takes the top spot for the best odds of a white Christmas in a major U.S. city, based on records from the Stapleton Airport. Historical probabilities show that Denver has a 34 percent chance of a white Christmas. The most recent white Christmas in the Mile High City happened in 2022.

White Christmases seem to come in groups in Denver. Only one year had bare ground on Christmas morning between 2006 and 2012, but between 2013 and 2021, there were only two white Christmases. Christmas morning 2022 had 2 inches of snow on the ground, but 2023 was barren.

#2 – Chicago, Illinois

Chicago, Illinois, comes in at a close second with a roughly 33.5 percent chance of having a white Christmas at O’Hare Airport. In the year 2000, those dreaming of a white Christmas awoke on Christmas morning in Chicago to a foot of snow on the ground after an extremely cold and snowy December that featured 23 days with snow.

Since then, eight years have had a white Christmas in the Windy City, most recently in 2022 with 1 inch on the ground and in 2017 with 2 inches. The most snow that ever fell on Christmas Day in Chicago was 5.1 inches in 1950.

#3 – Indianapolis, Indiana

Historical probabilities show that Indianapolis, Indiana, has a 26 percent chance of a white Christmas.

Indianapolis had a white Christmas with at least 1 inch of snow on the ground in 2022, 2017 and 2010, when 5 inches of snow remained from an unusually cold December with 18 days of measurable snow. The city hasn’t had more than an inch of snowfall on Christmas Day since 2005.

#4 Boston, Massachusetts 

Boston has a 25 percent historical probability of a white Christmas.

The record holder for snow on the ground in Boston is 11 inches in 1995, and the last white Christmas as defined as snow on the ground was in 2009, when 4 inches remained from a snowstorm on Dec. 20, which dropped 10 inches on Beantown. However, more than an inch of snow fell on Christmas Day most recently in Boston in 2017, when 2.9 inches was recorded and before that, 3.3 inches fell on Dec. 25, 2002.

You might expect Boston to be higher on the list, especially since Massachusetts is the birthplace of “Over the River and Through the Woods,” a song about heavy snow on Thanksgiving. However, the coastal influence of the warmer Atlantic Ocean knocks a few points off for this city.

#5 – Columbus, Ohio

Historical data shows that Columbus rounds out the top-five list for large cities with the best odds of a white Christmas at 22.6 percent.

Columbus, Ohio, had a white Christmas with at least 1 inch of snow on the ground in 2022, 2020 and 2017, but they haven’t had more than an inch of snowfall on Christmas Day since 1989.

#6 New York City

The Big Apple receives an honorable mention with a 13.2 percent chance of a white Christmas, according to historical probabilities and records from Central Park.

The heaviest snow observed on Christmas Day in New York City was 7 inches in 1909. The criteria of 1 or more inches of snow on the ground last happened on Dec. 25, 2009, when residents of the Big Apple woke up to 2 inches of snow left over from the 10.8 inches that fell on Dec. 19-20.

The only other white Christmas in NYC since the turn of the century was 2002; however, flakes were observed falling on Dec. 25 in 2003 and 2017.

More than 10 inches of snow fell a week before Christmas in New York City in 2020, providing wintry scenes for Christmas shoppers, but warmer weather melted it away when temperatures climbed to 61 degrees on Christmas afternoon.

Cities with less than a 10% chance of a white Christmas

Records show that only a handful of the top 25 cities in the US have more than a 1 percent likelihood of a white Christmas. Philadelphia has a 9.3 percent chance, while Washington, D.C., has a 7 percent shot, according to records from Dulles International Airport. Oklahoma City stands at 5 percent, and Seattle comes in at 3.7 percent.

Best odds of a white Christmas

AccuWeather expert meteorologists say towns in the mountains across parts of the West, the Rockies and New England have much better odds of a white Christmas.

Tahoe City, California, has an 83.4 percent chance of a white Christmas. Ski towns in Colorado, including Winter Park, Aspen, Steamboat Springs, Breckenridge and Telluride,  range from a 94 to 99 percent historical probability of a white Christmas.

Most locations in Maine and almost every station in Minnesota have more than a 50% chance of snow on the ground on Dec. 25.

Top towns on the list include Marquette, Michigan, at 95.6 percent and Duluth, Minnesota, with a 92.2 percent historical probability of a white Christmas.

When was the last widespread white Christmas in America?

Records show that the percentage of the country that experiences a white Christmas varies dramatically from year to year.

The most widespread white Christmas for the United States in recent years was 2022, when 53 percent of the country was covered by snow.

The least snowy Dec. 25 by far was one year later when only 16.7 percent of the nation was covered by snow on Dec. 25, 2023.

Other snowy Christmas Days included 51.1 percent in 2012 and 49 percent in 2017.

The history of white Christmas tales

If you’re dreaming of a white Christmas, it’s likely because most Christmas lore was invented in “The Little Ice Age” and passed down as memories through generations.

Outside of oddball Christmas storms, chances of a white Christmas in the United States are overall becoming less and less likely with the trend of rising temperatures and warmer ocean waters.