Retail sales dip in September after strong summer, but year-over-year gains show solid growth
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Retail sales slowed in September following two months of strong back-to-school spending, but year-over-year growth remains robust as retailers gear up for the holiday season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released Thursday by the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“Retail sales dipped in September as consumers hit the pause button after two solid months of back-to-school spending,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Amid continued economic uncertainty, consumers opted to preserve spending power in preparation for the important holiday season. While month-over-month spending data has fluctuated as consumers have reacted to changing circumstances, year-over-year gains show robust growth and signal momentum as we head into the holidays.”
According to the Retail Monitor, total retail sales — excluding automobiles and gasoline — were down 0.66% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis but up 5.42% year over year unadjusted in September. That compares with increases of 0.5% month over month and 6.81% year over year in August.
Core retail sales, which exclude restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations, declined 0.49% month over month in September but rose 5.72% year over year, following August gains of 0.26% and 6.67%, respectively.
For the first nine months of 2025, total sales were up 5.12% year over year, and core sales rose 5.32%, signaling consistent consumer demand despite short-term fluctuations.
Unlike the Census Bureau’s survey-based estimates, the Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card transaction data collected by Affinity Solutions and does not require monthly or annual revisions.
Sales rose year over year in nearly every major retail category in September, with the strongest growth seen in digital products, sporting goods, and clothing stores. However, month-to-month declines were reported in more than half of the sectors tracked.
Key sector breakdowns include:
- Digital products (e-books, games, and other items) rose 0.52% month over month and 21.35% year over year.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores were up 0.74% month over month and 8.81% year over year.
- Clothing and accessories stores declined 1.06% month over month but climbed 7.35% year over year.
- General merchandise stores fell 0.62% month over month but gained 5.52% year over year.
- Grocery and beverage stores dropped 0.76% month over month but were up 4.79% year over year.
- Health and personal care stores increased 0.38% month over month and 4.65% year over year.
- Electronics and appliance stores dipped 0.12% month over month but rose 4.43% year over year.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores declined 1.87% month over month but were up 0.56% year over year.
- Building and garden supply stores grew 0.53% month over month but fell 1.2% year over year.
Despite a temporary slowdown, the NRF said the data underscores continued consumer resilience and positive momentum heading into the 2025 holiday shopping season.
